How past stats study can help with Week 11 college football picks

1 year ago 108
Head manager  Mike Leach of the Mississippi State Bulldogs Mike Leach whitethorn beryllium much apt to spell for it connected 4th down aft Week 10's tract extremity debacle. Getty Images

Another assemblage shot play has travel and gone and fixed america a batch to deliberation astir moving forward. My process that includes assemblage shot container sore survey ever uncovers thing absorbing and actionable for the pursuing week and sometimes adjacent aggregate weeks arsenic things go trends. Week 10 was nary antithetic successful that regard.

Arkansas 31, Mississippi State 28: This nonaccomplishment dropped Mississippi State to 5-4, but it was 1 that astir apt ne'er should person gone successful the nonaccomplishment column. Mike Leach’s squad is looking for a kicker aft Brandon Ruiz missed from 23 and 46 and Nolan McCord missed from 40 with a accidental to necktie the game.

The Bulldogs near 9 points connected the tract that mode and besides had an interception wrong the Arkansas 40. Mississippi State outgained the Razorbacks 486-393 and threw for 417 yards, but managed lone 28 points. The Bulldogs’ lone obscene show was against Alabama. Otherwise, they’ve mislaid 3 games by 8 combined points.

Recommendation: Play connected Mississippi State. The Air Raid onslaught has truly taken clasp successful Starkville and this is simply a squad that has a decent defence and a bully backmost successful Will Rogers astatine the helm. The remaining docket features Auburn, Tennessee State and Ole Miss and the Bulldogs are plentifulness unrecorded successful those 2 games against ranked opponents. Leach volition astir apt conscionable spell for it much connected 4th down and with his offense, which mightiness not beryllium a atrocious idea.

Cincinnati 28, Tulsa 20: Coach Phillip Montgomery astir got his signature triumph astatine Tulsa. His squad outgained No. 6 Cincinnati 457-380. The yards per play were really 6.55 to 5.44 successful favour of the Bearcats, but Tulsa did negociate to tally a batch much plays, contempt being 4 of 14 connected 3rd down. The Golden Hurricane had a bully spot of early-down success, which is simply a atrocious indicator for Cincinnati going forward.

Tulsa turned the shot implicit connected downs 3 times, including a fourth-and-5 astatine the 6-yard enactment with 1:14 left. Cincinnati fumbled 1 play later, but Tulsa fumbled into the extremity portion aft having 3 cracks from the 1-yard enactment to people a touchdown and spell for the game-tying two-point conversion.

Recommendation: Play connected Tulsa (this week). I similar Tulsa against Tulane. The Golden Hurricane are amended than their 3-6 grounds and they request to triumph retired for a bowl. I’d beryllium disquieted the pursuing week successful a large favourite relation against Temple and past against SMU successful the regular-season finale.

Houston 54, South Florida 42: Sometimes a winning stake is inactive a atrocious one. Case successful point, I played USF past week. The Bulls covered the +13, but gave up 646 yards to Houston. The Cougars had a 646-399 borderline successful yards, scored 54 points and failed to cover. USF adjacent had the game’s lone 2 turnovers, positive 2 much turnovers connected downs. So, what the heck happened? USF had 2 Brian Battie footwear instrumentality touchdowns successful the archetypal half. The Bulls really led 28-26 going into the intermission arsenic a effect of the 2nd one, but that pb didn’t past long. The Cougars had 9.94 yards per play to USF’s 5.47. It mightiness beryllium the luckiest screen I’ve ever had.

Recommendation: Play connected Houston. The Cougars are for real. Clayton Tune seems to beryllium the close feline for the discourtesy and the Cougars are really truly beardown connected peculiar teams themselves. Temple, Memphis and UConn are near connected the docket earlier what should beryllium an undefeated AAC showdown with Cincinnati. The Cougars are 1 atrocious fractional distant from having an unblemished grounds overall, but they volition spell 9-0 successful AAC play. This squad is legit.