Mike Tomlin, Pete Carroll the latest coaching legends to learn this harsh NFL reality

3 months ago 24

The risky happening astir being a palmy NFL caput manager is outlasting your large quarterback.

The Steelers’ Mike Tomlin and Seahawks’ Pete Carroll are discovering that world this season, arsenic moving connected aft Ben Roethlisberger and Russell Wilson, respectively, is proving to beryllium a roller coaster. It’s thing the Patriots’ Bill Belichick couldn’t person warned them about. 

If uncovering a franchise backmost is the hardest happening to bash successful sports scouting – arsenic immoderate judge – ideate each the things that person to spell close to find 2 successful a row. John Harbaugh, Andy Reid and Mike McCarthy don’t person to imagine.

Those are the six progressive coaches with the astir vocation wins successful NFL past – each with astatine slightest 139 and a expansive full among them of 1,121. To nary surprise, each of the six had the aforesaid superior backmost for astatine slightest 10 seasons.

“Longevity means you had a beauteous bully quarterback,” 1 erstwhile NFL quarterbacks manager told The Post. “Who had longevity without one?”

But however person they fared without that quarterback? None of the six pairs are unneurotic immoderate more. Here’s a person look and past immoderate analysis:

1. Bill Belichick

219 of 291 wins with Tom Brady, 72-82 with anyone else

Over .500 with: Vinny Testaverde (16-15), Mac Jones (11-9), Matt Cassel (10-5)

2. Andy Reid

92 of 236 wins with Donovan McNabb, 144-87 with anyone else

Over .500 with: Patrick Mahomes (53-14), Alex Smith (50-26), Jeff Garcia (5-1), Michael Vick (18-16), A.J. Feeley (4-3), Koy Detmer (2-1), Nick Foles (1-0)

Head Coach Andy Reid of the Kansas City Chiefs talks to Patrick Mahomes #15 during the archetypal  fractional  against the Washington Football Team astatine  FedExField connected  October 17, 2021.Andy Reid has formed an adjacent much palmy concern with Patrick Mahomes than helium had with Donovan McNabb. Getty Images

3. Mike Tomlin

136 of 155 wins with Ben Roethlisberger, 19-18-1 with anyone else

Over .500 with: Mason Rudolph (5-4-1), Landry Jones (3-2), Michael Vick (2-1), Dennis Dixon (2-1)

4. Pete Carroll

104 of 154 wins with Russell Wilson, 50-53 with anyone else

Over .500 with: Drew Bledsoe (26-20)

5. Mike McCarthy

98 of 146 wins with Aaron Rodgers, 48-40-1 with anyone else

Over .500 with: Brett Favre (21-11), Dak Prescott (13-9), Cooper Rush (4-0)

6. John Harbaugh

96 of 139 wins with Joe Flacco, 43-23 with anyone else

Over .500 with: Lamar Jackson (39-14)

What does it mean? Like everyone other connected this database different than Belichick, Reid lone has 1 Super Bowl win. But helium is successful rarefied aerial with Don Shula arsenic the lone caput coaches to notch astatine slightest 50 wins with 3 antithetic quarterbacks, according to NBC.

Harbaugh is acceptable up for the aboriginal astir arsenic good arsenic Reid, and McCarthy should beryllium successful bully presumption unless proprietor Jerry Jones’ itchy digit hits the eject button.

But immoderate of the luster could travel disconnected of Tomlin – who has ne'er had a losing grounds successful his archetypal 15 seasons – if helium doesn’t triumph aboriginal successful rookie Kenny Pickett’s career. Especially aft the Mitch Trubisky experimentation failed by Week 4. The acold much accomplished Belichick already is proceeding that disapproval little 3 seasons aft Brady left, 20 games into Jones’ career. 

Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys talks with caput  manager  Mike McCarthy earlier  the crippled  against the Cincinnati Bengals connected  September 18, 2022.Mike McCarthy went from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers to Dak Prescott. Sean Payton whitethorn effort to propulsion disconnected thing akin erstwhile helium returns to the sideline.Getty Images

Carroll is staking portion of his bequest connected Geno Smith – and looking amazingly bully truthful acold – but helium has little to suffer because, astatine 71 years old, helium tin discontinue if things spell awry without immoderate suspicion. The 50-year-old Tomlin has nary specified luxury.

An statement could beryllium made that determination should beryllium a seventh manager listed. Sean Payton (142 of 152 wins with Drew Brees, 17-12 with anyone else) stepped down from the Saints successful the offseason, conscionable 1 play aft Brees’ retirement. Payton made it wide helium isn’t retiring. What helium truly should person said was: I’m not going to hazard my estimation connected an chartless quarterback. My adjacent occupation volition person a ready-made star, similar McCarthy got with Prescott.

More recognition to Reid, who developed 2 quarterbacks and maximized a third’s quality aft others wrote Smith off. And to Harbaugh who developed two. No inheritance.

Rookie roulette

How would Rene Descartes, Immanuel Kant and Gottfried Leibniz person handled the NFL Draft?

A guess: The 3 philosophers known for their enactment successful the nonstop sciences would person been arsenic baffled arsenic immoderate scout, manager oregon wide manager by the inexact subject of the NFL Draft.

Four weeks into the 2022 season, the rookie rushing person was the seventh moving backmost taken, the rookie tackles person was selected aft the tv broadcasts commencement taking commercialized breaks during prime announcements and the champion violative tackle wasn’t adjacent his team’s archetypal prime astatine the position.

It’s not a astonishment to spot the Jaguars’ Travon Walker, the Lions’ Aidan Hutchinson oregon the Jets’ Sauce Gardner – 3 of the archetypal 4 picks – playing astatine a precocious level immediately. But the equation gets tricky faster than the archetypal circular ends.

Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner (1) breaks up   a walk  intended for Baltimore Ravens choky  extremity  Mark Andrews (89).Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner has lived up to his top-four draught presumption done 4 weeks.Bill Kostroun

Here is simply a look astatine 5 of the astir astonishing and 5 of the astir disappointing rookies truthful far:

Surprising

RT Abraham Lucas, Seahawks (No. 72 overall): After drafting near tackle Charles Cross astatine No. 9, the Seahawks decided to spell with rookie bookends. Sure enough, it’s the third-rounder Lucas who is the highest-graded rookie tackle by Pro Football Focus. He has allowed 3 backmost hits (zero sacks) connected 152 pass-blocking snaps.

RB Dameon Pierce, Texans (No. 107 overall): Pierce subscribes to the theory: “Be the hammer, not the nail.” He runs similar it, initiating and past moving done interaction with defenders. Maybe helium tin inherit the Titans’ Derrick Henry’s crown whenever the King is done bruising the AFC South.

CB Jack Jones, Patriots (No. 121 overall): He surely doesn’t deficiency confidence, saying it was “disrespectful” for Aaron Rodgers “to propulsion an retired way connected me” due to the fact that if it’s implicit past “I’m nary good.” Jones’ drawback number has accrued each game, and helium shouldn’t permission the tract astatine each aft his pick-six connected Rodgers.

WR Romeo Doubs, Packers (No. 132 overall): Just arsenic Davante Adams erstwhile replaced Jordy Nelson arsenic Rodgers’ go-to receiver, idiosyncratic had to regenerate Adams. Doubs (19 receptions for 184 yards and 2 touchdowns) looks similar the aboriginal favorite, contempt dropping a imaginable game-winning touchdown against the Patriots (the Packers won successful overtime). Catching passes from a Hall of Famer is simply a bully mode to gain a immense 2nd contract.

OLB Malcolm Rodriguez, Lions (No. 188 overall): There has to beryllium 1 agleam spot connected the worst scoring defence successful the NFL. It’s Rodriguez, who leads each rookies with 33 tackles and was PFF’s third-highest-graded rookie adjacent successful a 48-45 nonaccomplishment to the Seahawks. He is showing large instincts.

Disappointing

OLB Kayvon Thibodeaux, Giants (No. 5 overall): A amazingly accelerated commencement by the Giants has taken immoderate unit disconnected Thibodeaux, who missed the archetypal 2 games owed a sprained MCL and has lone 1 backmost deed (plus a fumble recovery) successful 2 games. Thibodeaux acknowledged “it’s time” for his archetypal sack.

Giants antiaircraft  extremity  Kayvon Thibodeaux (5) fights done  a artifact  by Dallas Cowboys violative  tackle Tyler Smith (73).No. 5 wide prime Kayvon Thibodeaux has failed to capable up the stat expanse for the Giants successful the aboriginal going. Bill Kostroun

LG Kenyon Green, Texans (No. 15 overall): After getting by for 3 weeks, Green had a nightmare Week 4, allowing 7 pressures and committing 3 penalties connected 57 snaps. He entered the NFL arsenic a overmuch amended tally blocker, but he’ll request to beryllium multi-dimensional to validate his draught status.

WR Treylon Burks, Titans (No. 18 overall): Not lone does Burks request to unrecorded up to his draught status, helium besides volition beryllium known arsenic the subordinate traded for A.J. Brown. Brown has 25 catches for 404 yards and a touchdown for the Eagles; Burks has 10 for 129 and nary touchdowns. The run-heavy Titans request to propulsion heavy to support defenses honest, and Burks’ ft wounded won’t assistance get that done.

S Dax Hill, Bengals (No. 31 overall): If the program is to regenerate free-agent-to-be Jessie Bates with Hill adjacent season, the Bengals mightiness privation to get Hill immoderate acquisition arsenic a rookie. Yes, Bates and Vonn Bell marque a apical information duo, but Hill needs to carve retired a relation successful sub packages. He has played 15 snaps successful 4 games – fewest connected discourtesy oregon defence of immoderate non-injured first-rounder.

RB Kenneth Walker, Seahawks (No. 41 overall): Just erstwhile it looked arsenic if the Seahawks were acceptable to springiness up connected 2018 first-round bust Rashaad Penny – who was buried down the now-retired Chris Carson for 3 ½ seasons – Penny came to life. It has rendered Walker (15 carries for 58 yards successful 3 games) arsenic a spare part, overmuch similar Penny was erstwhile not injured.

College shot crippled of the week

No. 8 Tennessee astatine No. 25 LSU, Saturday, Noon, ESPN

Tennessee backmost   Hendon Hooker (5) escapes from Florida linebacker Shemar James (6) during the 2nd  fractional  of an NCAA assemblage   shot   crippled  Saturday, Sept. 24, 2022.Tennessee backmost Hendon Hooker is sprinting up draught boards, perchance to the No. 4 QB, with his electrifying commencement to the play successful the SEC.AP

Tennessee backmost Hendon Hooker mightiness not beryllium capable to leap implicit the apical 3 quarterbacks successful the 2023 draught people – Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, Alabama’s Bryce Young and Kentucky’s Will Levis – but helium could apical the adjacent tier.

Two numbers basal out: A 71.7 completion percent and zero interceptions connected 113 throws. Last clip out, Hooker threw for 349 yards and ran for 112 against Florida without his apical receiver Cedric Tillman connected the field.

“There are a batch of casual throws due to the fact that the discourtesy is truthful good, but determination is accuracy there, too, due to the fact that it tin beryllium easy, but you inactive person to marque the throws,” 1 scout said. “He’s super-productive with a bully limb and athleticism.”

One large question successful the scouting community: What happened to LSU receiver Kayshon Boutte? A preseason high-first-round projection, Boutte has 11 catches for 97 yards and nary touchdowns successful 4 games. LSU produced studs Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase successful the 2020 and 2021 drafts, respectively, but that was earlier a coaching alteration to Brian Kelly, who precocious addressed the effect of Boutte’s mediocre numbers connected his draught stock.

“All those guys that marque decisions astir who the champion receivers are successful the state are inactive going to look astatine Kayshon and go, ‘That’s a really, truly bully wide receiver,’” Kelly told reporters. “Numbers won’t dictate wherever helium gets drafted. It’s his quality to proceed to play the crippled astatine the highest level. When you crook connected the film, he’s moving afloat speed, he’s beating the guys, and the shot didn’t travel to him for immoderate reason.”

With attraction called to it, expect LSU to provender Boutte, if for nary different crushed than truthful LSU’s apical receiver recruits don’t commencement to look elsewhere.

Parting thoughts

1. I’ve ne'er been a believer successful the Law of Averages. More of a Murphy’s Law subscriber myself.

How agelong until Harbaugh joins me? After losing their last six games of past play to autumn from apical squad successful the AFC to missing the playoffs, the Ravens were expected to beryllium amended this play conscionable connected the ground of luck.

Five of those six losses by a full of 8 points. One was successful overtime and 2 were aft Harbaugh’s analytics-charged decisions to spell for the winning two-point conversion backfired and became one-point losses. How could it get worse?

Head manager  John Harbaugh (L) and kicker Justin Tucker #9 (R) of the Baltimore Ravens look   connected  from the sideline earlier  a 4th  down   conversion effort  against the Buffalo Bills connected  October 2, 2022.John Harbaugh’s reasoning was sound. But the effect of his fourth-down determination was different constrictive nonaccomplishment for the Ravens.Getty Images

Well, the Ravens are 2-2 aft trailing for a full of 14 seconds successful their 2 losses. They’ve really trailed for much clip (8:53) successful their 2 wins.

Harbaugh again came nether occurrence past week for the analytics down passing up a tie-breaking tract extremity with his discourtesy astatine the 2-yard enactment connected 4th down successful the 4th fourth against the Bills. His constituent was that taking a 23-20 pb conscionable means the unsafe Josh Allen has 4 downs alternatively of 3 to determination the shot – astir guaranteeing a tract extremity and possibly the winning touchdown.

It mightiness beryllium a hard merchantability to antiaircraft players to admit you don’t spot them to get a stop. Take feelings retired of the equation, though, and it’s hard to reason with Harbaugh that tract goals don’t bushed large quarterbacks and defenses don’t get stops often capable successful that late-game spot.

2. If you person ever received the incorrect tiny bundle from Amazon – who hasn’t? – past you cognize that the instrumentality argumentation usually allows the lawsuit to keep, donate oregon propulsion distant the incorrect item. Well, I wonderment if Amazon is asking for immoderate wealth backmost aft airing a Broncos-Colts crippled Thursday that was wide pilloried connected societal media for its boring, sloppy, punt-happy, touchdown-less play.

Amazon’s debut of “Thursday Night Football” – a bundle for which it is paying much than $1 cardinal per year – allegedly acceptable a grounds for Prime subscription sign-ups implicit a three-hour period. Well, that was for Chiefs-Chargers. Will determination beryllium a property merchandise adjacent week astir the fig of cancellations caused successful a three-hour play by Bears-Commanders?

There’s conscionable not capable bully matchups astir weeks to capable up the 3 Sunday windows, Thursday nighttime and Monday night. Unlike Sunday, the Thursday and Monday schedules can’t beryllium flexed for amended matchups arsenic the play progresses. At slightest that Jets-Jaguars matchup connected Dec. 22 has entreaty now!

Washington Commanders moving  backmost  Brian Robinson Jr., center, works   retired  during signifier    astatine  the team's NFL shot   grooming  facility, Wednesday, Oct. 5, 2022.Brian Robinson is backmost connected the signifier tract for the Commanders, a small much than a period aft being changeable successful an attempted carjacking.AP

3. The members of a heavy preseason tract for Comeback Player of the Year – Saquon Barkley (Giants), Christian McCaffrey (Panthers), Derrick Henry (Titans), Chase Young (Commanders), the duo of Michael Thomas and Jameis Winston (Saints) – should each recognize if the grant goes to Commanders rookie moving backmost Brian Robinson nary substance his stats.

Robinson returned to the signifier tract Wednesday, conscionable 38 days aft helium was changeable during what constabulary called a robbery oregon carjacking attempt. He underwent country connected his close leg.

“I conjecture I’m the king of adversity,” helium said. “I’ve … dealt with truthful overmuch adversity successful my life. This is conscionable different concern wherever I conscionable got to beryllium stronger than what I’m up against.” He added of his infirmary stay, “That was astir apt the lowest constituent I’ve ever been successful my life. The lone happening I retrieve is conscionable receiving each the emotion and everybody reaching retired to me, conscionable spreading the love. That was each I needed astatine the time.”

The Commanders person 3 weeks to measure Robinson earlier deciding whether to adhd him to the progressive roster oregon unopen him down for the season. Barring a wellness setback, helium could beryllium their starting moving backmost earlier excessively long.