NFL bettors can’t go wrong with these teaser strategies

4 weeks ago 22

Teasers person been a precise fashionable taxable of speech connected our VSiN shows this NFL play and person besides been a fashionable taxable for those that person reached retired with questions. It doesn’t wounded that teasers person besides been wildly palmy this season. Most of the favorites teased down person covered. A batch of the ones teased up person covered arsenic well.

I’ll deed connected a fewer of the cardinal topics that I’ve been asked about.

When should I tease a side?

The astir commonly promoted teaser is known arsenic the “Wong Teaser.” Named for Stanford Wong (whose existent sanction was John Ferguson, by the way), this benignant of teaser was discussed successful his 2001 book, Sharp Sports Betting. The thought present is the optimal teaser is 1 that encompasses the cardinal numbers of 3 and 7, which are the astir communal last people discrepancies betwixt teams.

In essence, teasing a favourite down from -7.5, -8 oregon -8.5 to -1.5, -2 oregon -2.5 includes the 3 and 7. Teasing an underdog from +1.5, +2 oregon +2.5 up to +7.5, +8 oregon +8.5 besides includes the 3 and 7. These are the teasers that astir bettors strive to person successful pouch connected an NFL Sunday.

We person seen an summation successful teasers taking a -6 favourite down to PK oregon thing similar that. There is thing inherently incorrect with doing this, but from a mathematical standpoint, it would not beryllium arsenic effectual arsenic a teaser that catches the 3 and 7.

Should I tease disconnected a cardinal number?

The thought being teasing a -7 favourite down to -1 oregon a +3 underdog up to +9. This way, you “get” that cardinal number, successful the consciousness that it wouldn’t beryllium a propulsion connected a consecutive wager, it would beryllium a victor connected a teaser leg.

While I wouldn’t telephone this a atrocious strategy, retrieve however galore times successful the past I’ve talked astir buying astir to get the champion number. In a batch of cases, you mightiness beryllium capable to get a -6.5 oregon a +3.5 conscionable by being diligent oregon by having aggregate accounts. Remember that a teaser is inactive a benignant of parlay. It is intelligibly much favorable for the subordinate than a regular parlay, but you’re besides paying -130 oregon higher successful vig to enactment unneurotic a two-team teaser.

The worth of getting 6.5 alternatively of 7 oregon 2.5 alternatively of 3 is worthy astir 20 cents of enactment equity successful the NFL. I haven’t done the mathematics oregon seen it done, but I would judge that a consecutive wager astatine -110 connected -6.5 oregon +3.5 is simply a amended enactment than a teaser astatine -7 oregon +3.

Patriots manager  Bill BelichickPatriots manager Bill BelichickGetty Images

What astir different teasers?

Reader Mac and I person been going backmost and distant connected teaser strategies precocious and his question was the inspiration for this piece. The games successful question were Cincinnati teased to -4 against the Jets and the Patriots teased to +11.5 against the Chargers.

These are unconventional teaser legs, but the crippled has gotten a batch much unconventional. Three of the past 4 seasons, offenses person averaged 5.6 yards per play. Back successful 2015, a squad averaging 5.6 yards per play would person been 10th successful the NFL. Now, that people is conscionable the average.

When Wong wrote astir teasers backmost successful 2001, crippled totals were overmuch little than they are now. The league mean yards per play was 5.1. Averaging 5.6 yards per play would person made you a top-five offense. Teams averaged 20.2 points per game. Teams are scoring 23.6 ppg this season. Kickers person made 93.3 percent of their other points this season. It was a 98.1 percent proposition successful 2001 and 99.3 percent successful 2014, the past play with the abbreviated PAT. There were 85 two-point conversion attempts successful 2001. There person already been 58 this play done 7 weeks.

The crippled has evolved. Scoring is higher. While 3 and 7 are inactive the 2 astir communal numbers, they aren’t rather arsenic communal arsenic they utilized to be, truthful their teaser importance, portion inactive great, has lessened slightly.

Teasing a +5.5 up to +11 similar the Patriots includes 7, but besides 8, a much communal fig now, and 10, a fig that has go much communal with higher-scoring games. Similarly, 5 and 6 are much important present than they utilized to be, truthful getting 5, 6 and 7 with Cincinnati tin person immoderate equity.

While a Wong Teaser is inactive the apical dog, different teasers and different autumn numbers person gained much equity.